US midterm elections
Election outcome in the USA still open
Apparently, the Republicans were too early to celebrate before the “midterms” in the USA. Whoever will call the shots in Congress in the future still depends on a few close races. Is a long hanging game imminent?
Despite high inflation and poor poll numbers, President Joe Biden and his Democrats defeated each other in the midterm elections United States far better than expected. A clear victory for the Republicans, as predicted in the polls, did not materialize. Even the day after the vote, it was still unclear who would achieve the majorities in the two chambers of Congress. It was initially unclear how long it would take to count the results. Ex-President Donald Trump put a damper on the election.
What was voted on
At the “midterms” in the middle of Biden’s four-year term, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, the other chamber of the US House of Representatives, were up for election. the republican would need to gain a net seat in the Senate and five seats in the House of Representatives to gain a majority in both chambers. Numerous governorships and other important offices in the states were also voted on in the elections.
Where there are still tight races
Spellbound, the United States watched tight races for Senate seats in four contested states. In Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada was still open on Wednesday morning (local time) as to whether Democrats or Republicans would prevail for mandates in the Senate – and who would ultimately take over the majority in the Congress Chamber. It was also initially unclear who would call the shots in the House of Representatives in the future. There was a slight lead for the Republicans here.
What’s at stake
Both midterm elections the president’s party usually gets a reminder. The outcome of the election will decide how uncomfortable the next two years will be for Biden, what he can still achieve politically in the second half of his term in office – and whether that will put him in a position from which he can apply for another term with good prospects.
Should the Republicans take control of Congress, the next two years are likely to be marked by deadlock and partisan infighting. Capture one or both chambers of Congress, might biden will probably no longer push through any major legislative initiatives from January. In addition, he and his government could face parliamentary investigations and impeachment proceedings in the case.
Why a longer hanging game could threaten
The Democrats were able to achieve important successes in the elections and in Pennsylvania, for example, took one of the 100 Senate seats from the Republicans. The progressive John Fetterman prevailed there against the TV doctor Mehmet Oz, who was supported by Trump. The Democrats have to defend the seats up for election in the Senate or win seats from the Republicans in order not to lose their wafer-thin majority.
It could take a while until the result in the remaining four states is clarified. In Nevada and Arizona, the counting of postal votes could possibly take days. And should the Senate majority ultimately decide in Georgia – as in 2020 – there would be a longer impasse. In Georgia there will be a runoff on December 6 if no candidate gets more than 50 percent in the first attempt. The race in the traditionally more republican state in the south was considered a possible key race in the election from the outset.
What Republicans can hope for
In the House of Representatives, Republicans expect to win enough seats for a majority. However, the result could be much tighter than expected. “It’s clear that we’re going to take back the House,” Republican parliamentary group leader Kevin McCarthy said on election night. He wants to replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi from her important post as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Whoever chairs the chamber is number three in the state ranking after the US president and his vice president. For McCarthy, however, it would not be easy to unite the fragmented party behind him in the event of an only narrow majority.
Signals for the 2024 presidential election
After the “midterms” the presidential election campaign begins. On November 15, Trump is expected to announce his candidacy, which he has long hinted at. The fact that several candidates he supported failed on election night weakens him in this project. Trump’s biggest internal party competitor for 2024, Ron DeSantis, emerged significantly stronger from the election. With a powerful result, he was re-elected governor of Florida.
He has not yet officially announced whether Biden will compete again. At 79, he’s the oldest president in US history, and he’s struggling with poor popularity ratings. Should his Democrats do significantly better than expected in the midterm elections, that should give him a tailwind.
Polling Station Closing Information Senate Race Predictions at Stats Site Fivethirtyeight House Race Predictions at Stats Site Fivethirtyeight House, Senate and Governor Race Predictions Midterms Election Information at Ballotpedia