Ukraine podcast: Danger of new refugee movements from Ukraine
Podcast “Ukraine – the situation”
Military expert Masala sees a risk of a new flight from Ukraine
According to military expert Carlo Masala, the terror of the Russian airstrikes against the civilian population could trigger a new flight from Ukraine.
According to military expert Carlo Masala, the terror of the Russian airstrikes against the civilian population could trigger a new flight from Ukraine. “It will be extremely difficult if help doesn’t come from outside,” says the politics professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich star-Podcast “Ukraine – the situation”. It is the goal of Russian war tactics to worsen the living conditions of the people and thus to demoralize the civilian population. “It’s definitely the case that it could tip over,” warns Masala. Even if there are no concrete signs of this so far, “more Ukrainians could make their way to Europe again.”
Air defense difficult for Ukraine in the long term
So far, a relatively high proportion of Russian missiles have been intercepted by western air defense technology. But there are too few systems in Ukraine and the amount of ammunition supplied is limited. “Ukraine will not be able to maintain this defense for long,” says Masala. It is unclear whether the Russian side has enough material to continue the terrorist attacks with this intensity: “That is the great unknown.”
The Russians’ strategy is to target civilian infrastructure while expanding their defenses in the east and south of the country. If fields and small paths were easier to pass after the winter, they could then undertake new attacks.
Battle for grain exports
Masala also sees the current limited military capabilities as a reason for the suspension of the agreement on exporting Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. He refers to the drone attack on ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, the port of the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula: “Russia has to react to this,” he says. However, he does not believe that the attack actually came from civilian ships, as the Russians want to make credible.
The aim of stopping grain exports is to take away revenue from Ukraine. Masala does not rule out an escalation of the conflict, which could even include shelling of grain trucks. “In this conflict some things were unimaginable, what then happened,” he says.
Half-life of Putin’s deals ‘not necessarily long’
Masala has little hope that a negotiated solution to the grain deliveries would be sustainable. It is possible to reach agreements on individual issues with President Vladimir Putin if these correspond to his strategic interests. But the past has shown that Putin does not feel bound by agreements. “The half-life is not necessarily long,” says Masala