Population growth could be stopped as early as 2040

Population growth could be stopped as early as 2040

Crowd in London

While the UN calculates conservatively, Earth 4All researchers see a rapid decline in the world’s population.

(Photo: dpa)

Berlin According to a new forecast, the world population could peak at 8.5 billion people as early as 2040 and decline to around 6 billion by the end of the century. The prerequisite, however, is a “giant leap” in investments in economic development, education and health, according to the international initiative Earth4All.

The United Nations (UN) does not expect a peak of around 10.4 billion people until 2080, according to a report from the summer of 2022. had in November According to the UN, the world population has passed the eight billion mark. The world population was last at 6 billion people around the year 2000.

In the working paper “People and Planet” published on Monday, the Earth4All researchers draw two possible scenarios for the future. In the first, the world continues to develop economically in a similar way to that of the past 50 years.

Then the population will reach its peak by 2050, according to the analysis. In the second scenario, this could even be achieved as early as 2040 if, among other things, there were larger investments in fighting poverty.

The Earth4All experts are convinced that other prominent population forecasts often underestimate the importance of rapid economic development. “We know that rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” said Per Espen Stoknes, director of the Earth4All project.

“Fertility rates drop when girls have access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better health care.”

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