Increase in the number of employees in the state supports the labor market

TDespite the increasingly gloomy economic prospects for the coming months, the research institute of the Federal agency for work no major upheavals on the job market at the moment. This is the result of his new forecast for the development of unemployment and employment until the end of 2023. Nevertheless, there is also bad news for young people: Students have to wait longer for a one-off payment of 200 euros, which is intended to relieve them in the difficult economic situation.

"The labor market is being adversely affected by the economic setbacks, but we do not expect a slump in view of the high demand for labour," summarized Enzo Weber, division manager at Nürnberger Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research (IAB) summarized the results of its forecast published on Friday. The number of people in employment will continue to rise in the coming year, albeit more slowly than before: Based on an annual average of almost 45 million people in employment in 2021, the institute expects an increase of 561,000 people in employment this year and a further 216,000 in the coming year.

The number of unemployed will rise slightly to 2.47 million in 2023, after falling to 2.42 million this year - although "also due to the registration of Ukrainian refugees in basic security". Since June, those in need of help from the Ukraine have no longer received asylum seeker benefits, they are being supported directly via the Hartz IV system, which is to be continued as "citizen's allowance" from January.

State demand supports the labor market

However, the expected growth in the workforce is not primarily due to the demand for labor from private companies, but from the state: in the “public service providers, education, health” sector alone, the institute expects an increase of 210,000 jobs subject to social security contributions this year and a further 150,000 in the coming year The year 2023. "This is mainly due to the expansion of child day care and the aging of society and is reinforced by the need for care for refugees from Ukraine," says Weber. He expects "largely stagnant" for the manufacturing industry.

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