IAB labor market barometer falls for the 4th time in a row


Labor market barometer: New hires can still be expected, but not with as strong an increase as before.

(Photo: dpa)

Nuremberg The labor market barometer of the Nuremberg Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB) has fallen for the fourth time in a row. In August it fell by 0.6 points compared to July and stood at 101.3 points. It still provides a positive outlook on the situation on the labour market. A value of 100 is considered neutral.

“Of the war in Ukraine draws the Economy down, tough effects are to be expected,” said Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analysis. Additional risks from a possible worsening of the energy crisis continued to exist.

IAB researcher Weber attributes the fact that the unemployment component, at 98.1 points (plus 0.1 compared to July) is still below the 100 mark, primarily to the statistical effect of the Ukraine refugees. These people are now included in the basic security system and thus also appear in the unemployment statistics.

Barometer for employment falls sharply

However, the barometer for employment fell sharply (minus 1.3 points). This means that new hires will continue to be expected – albeit not with such a strong increase as before.

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The IAB labor shortage index Difficulties in filling vacancies reflected, reached a new high in August. This indicates that it is becoming increasingly difficult for employers to find suitable workers, which is also holding back job growth.

The development in Germany is also reflected in other European countries, said Weber. Together with foreign labor market researchers, the IAB is also coordinating a European labor market barometer, which fell by 0.8 points in August to 100.9 points.

For the barometer, the IAB surveys all employment agencies every month in Germany on their forecasts for the next three months. The barometer is therefore considered a leading indicator for the situation on the German labor market.

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