Nafter the opening game between Qatar and Ecuador, the soccer World Cup really picks up speed this Monday. Three games are on the schedule. There are also two teams who can be trusted to stay in Qatar for a long time. It is not unlikely that England and the Netherlands will go far. But how likely are they to win their first game at the Emirates finals? The World Cup forecast by Daniel Memmert and Fabian Wunderlich shows the current figures for the games on Monday.
The English will start in a duel with Iran (2:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cupin the ZDF and at MagentaTV). The roles are clearly distributed. At the 2018 World Cup, the “Three Lions” took fourth place, the opponent failed in the preliminary round. There are also differences in the current world rankings: England is in fifth place, Iran in 20th place. The difference is even more serious when it comes to the average market value of the players in the World Cup squad: a good 48 million euros compared to just over two. All this gives an English victory probability of more than 70 percent.
In the following game (17.00 CET in FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ZDF and on MagentaTV) it doesn’t really look any different, even if only just under 60 percent speak for a success of the Dutch against Senegal. That is still clear. Interesting fact: Oranje didn’t even qualify in 2018, unlike their opponents. For the Africans, however, it was already over after the preliminary round. The Dutch are eighth in the world rankings, Senegal is 18th. In terms of market values, the players from Louis van Gaal are twice as expensive at a good 22 million euros as those from Senegal, where Bayern star Sadio Mané has to pass out injured.
The final duel on Monday (8:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ZDF and on MagentaTV). The teams from the USA and Wales are almost equal in many areas. Four and a half years ago in Russia, neither of them were there. In the world rankings, the Americans (16th place) are just ahead of Wales (19th). In terms of average market values, the US boys are a little more ahead with 10.57 million to 6.17. This is also easily reflected in the prognosis. Accordingly, an American victory is slightly more likely than other outcomes.