Many Republicans regard Donald Trump as the reason for the defeat of the Republicans. And yet it is not certain that he is at the end of his movement.
Anyone looking for an example of a completely unexpected, embarrassing, almost disastrous gossip will find it in the USA today. The fact that the Republicans, after months of drivel about a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, including howls of triumph that preceded them, not only simply could not win the US Senate, but in the worst case are now going into the next two years with a shrunken faction, is a disaster of historic proportions .
Experience has shown that from the mid-term elections onwards, the incumbent president has to rule against a Senate majority of the opposition party – a variant of the Anglo-Saxon tradition of checks and balances. Under Ronald Reagan, the Republicans lost the Senate majority to the Democrats in 1987, midway through their iconic party’s second term.
George HW Bush ruled completely against an opposition majority, Bill Clinton lost the Senate to the Republicans after two years in 1995 and was unable to win it back in 1999 either. Like Raegan, George W. Bush lost the majority in the Senate to the Democrats in the middle of his second term in 2007, and Barack Obama to the Republicans in 2011 after two years in office.
The first president since Jimmy Carter, the hapless Democrat who was voted out after just one term, and who was able to retain the majority of his own party in the Senate, was Donald Trump in 2019, of all things, the first man in the White House since Carter, who also after only four years was elected from office. Exactly this Donald Trump is considered by many to be responsible for the fact that with Joe Biden his successor is now defending his party’s Senate majority.
The “Red Wave” is missing
After all, after being voted out, Trump was in a mixture of fury and hubris not resigned to the role of the vanquished, but has since interfered in an outrageous way in the appointment of the Republican field of candidates. And, together with his fanatical supporters at the base of the party, he pushed through dozens of candidates by recommendation and punishment, who prayed after his lie about election fraud and saw off all those who had the courage to tell the truth.
Liz Cheney, Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney are named as representative. Trump wanted to use the midterms in a triumphant coronation mass for the renewed presidential candidate and, in the direct haze of the nationwide election, he self-importantly announced an announcement that would “make his base happy”. It was agreed: Trump will announce his entry into the 2024 race.
He wanted to surf on one “Red Wave”, a march through by his Republicans in the midterm elections, in which he wanted to conquer both houses of parliament and thus effectively paralyze Joe Biden’s government. Instead, the Republican plans are now in shambles, the Democrats were able to defend their Senate majority and even have it in their hands to extend their majority to 51 out of 100 seats on December 6 (previously it was up to Vice President Harris, as Senate President, to break the 50/50 stalemate to break in favor of the Democrats).
Should Georgia then also go to the Democrats, the Democratic Senator, who is considered a disguised Republican, could also Joe Manchin be slowed down, who hindered almost every meaningful legislative project with his vote.
The suburbs are giving Trump a thumbs down
What has happened there? The answer is obvious: Trump managed to subjugate the traditional Republican party with the help of his fanatical coalition of right-wing extremists, conspiracy believers and racists at the base. What he overlooked is that the Republican electorate across the country isn’t as obnoxious as his supporters celebrate.
In the bourgeois satellite, suburban and dormitory towns around the urban centers, the white middle classes who traditionally leaned towards the Republicans turned away in disgust from the din of Trump and his shrill followers. The Republicans lost tight races conspicuously often where particularly trumpeting candidates sang the song of their guru, talked about voter fraud and conjured up the specter of communism in their campaign.
Internal party support is crumbling
Republicans are already talking openly and privately that Trump has screwed up what should actually be a secure majority in both houses. Up and down the country the demand is growing louder that the Republican Party must now renew itself in order to be able to campaign and win in 2024. There is a certain irony in this, as this party only developed with Trump’s rise during the 2016 Republican primaries and finally with his Election victory in November of the same year unmasked.
What used to be a state-supporting, right-wing conservative party, which was at least outwardly state-supporting, has turned into a largely right-wing extremist political sect. Some dignitaries in the Senate and House of Representatives subordinated themselves reluctantly, often grudgingly, but always with an eye on their own sinecures and chances of re-election.
Now this community of convenience seems to be crumbling. For the second time Trump is a loser and the man who rumbles his party into defeat. Again it is he who blames others and portrays himself as a victim. And again it is Trump who is sure of his cause that his blindly following fans will swallow this scam.
If that works? Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida who was re-elected with impressive approval, is already sharpening his knives. It is said that he would rather replace Trump sooner rather than later as the strongman of the Republicans and run for the presidency himself in 2024. What speaks for him is that his views are no less right-wing, misguided and disgusting than those of his opponent, but he himself is currently the winner. With that he could persuade Trump’s base to overflow.
Trump is not finished yet
Nonetheless, no one should believe that Trump will allow his infantry troops to be swept away without a fight. He will do everything to erase this renewed disgrace and now spray poison, insult, aim his punches unerringly below the belt line of his opponents. Not coincidentally, he has already signaled that no one can spout as much dirt on DeSantis as he does, and that he intends to do so should the Sunshine State People’s Tribune actually dare to go against him in the party race.
So much bad can be said about Donald Trump, and rightly so. The real estate mogul is a misogynista racist, an egotist to whom nothing is closer than himself. Trump is ruthless, insidious, vulgar and vicious. But there is one thing that this man from New York can do like no other: counter-offensive in distress.
In fact, the chances are not bad that he can keep Trumpism alive and, with his fans, save the reign over the party. That would almost be desirable for the Democrats. Because people in the US are fed up with Trump and his big mouth. They want a fresh start without Trump.