Bolsonaro loses and is still the winner


BBrazil faces another four weeks of heated campaigning. As expected, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received the most votes in the presidential election on Sunday. However, he did not manage to break the 50 percent mark for a win in the first ballot. Only around 48 percent of the votes went to President Jair Bolsonaro’s left-wing challenger. However, with 43.5 percent of the votes, this achieved a much better result than the polls had predicted.

Bolsonaro performed significantly better than forecast, especially in the two most popular states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Analysts attribute the discrepancy to the large number of “silent” Bolsonaro voters who don’t participate in polls or reveal their preferences in them.

Other candidates who ran in the election did not get over 5 percent. So there will be a runoff between the Lula and Bolsonaro at the end of October. Their outcome is more open than ever.

Lula is very popular with the poor

The first round of elections had resulted in a duel between Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva early on, with the latter leading the polls for over a year. Lula da Silva, who was imprisoned for corruption but was allowed to stand again after the trial against him was annulled, enjoys great popularity among the poor. Under his government between 2003 and 2010, millions of families were lifted out of poverty. The time was marked by a raw materials boom, which Lula da Silva had to draw from the full.

At the same time, the former union leader is benefiting from the rejection of the president, which is mainly due to the heavily criticized behavior during the pandemic and Bolsonaro’s sometimes aggressive character. This also includes the doubts raised by Bolsonaro about the electronic voting system, the electoral authorities and the reliability of the electronic ballot boxes. If he doesn’t win in the first ballot, something must be wrong with the electoral authorities, he said two weeks ago.



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